We’ve spent our first 6 weeks talking about the two-wheel industry at large, and in this post we focus on the specific problem/opportunity Dust is going after.
Namely, that while the global moto market has an extremely passionate and engaged user base, it struggles to bring new riders into the fold, lacks a brand ecosystem that drives innovation, and has yet to fully realize the potential of electric powertrain tech. As we will discuss below, however, there is a unique alignment of factors creating a possible inflection point for the industry.
Market research predicts global dirt bike sales will double in 10 years from $9B to $18B per year, and eMoto sales in particular will 15x from 25k to 375k units sold. E-Moto is slated to become a $2B market in US, Canada and EU, which are key markets for Dust. The market size within the geographical reach of a company can also be referred to as 'Serviceable Available Market' or SAM. For reference, we've highlighted where the mountain bike industry is currently on track to hit, both for total market size, but also the substantial eMTB market share.
We started Dust with the vision to use the available ingredients to introduce new product, experiences and riders to the table, helping inject new energy into this mature market.
Firstly, we’re leveraging the proximity to the industry + customers and throwing a US hat over the wall. To bring the kind of West Coast culture leadership that helped make surf, skate, MTB and snowboarding what they are today. Moto remains as one of the few sports worthy of a spot in the X-games. It urgently needs a Brand that is ‘Designed & Built in America’ and extends its cultural relevance into the general population.
EV technology has already started to revolutionize many product categories around us. Motors and batteries are now so power dense and efficient that we have motorized skateboards, surfboards, scooters and bicycles in ways that were never possible with internal combustion. Mountain biking in particular is seeing the sport radically evolve because of the popularity of pedal assist motors. There's a path to think differently and create a new category of dirt bike, expanding unit sales rather than replacing them.
Over the past 5 years there’s been an explosion in the popularity of powered two-wheel vehicles driven by sales of Super73 and Surron bikes. Suddenly hundreds of thousands of new (electric) throttle capable riders have entered the space adjacent to moto and will soon be asking “Whats next?!”. Seriously, have you ever seen more kids riding endless wheelies than now?
Imagine what the 'Total Addressable Market' for moto might be if we can grow and retain this new generation of riders, plus cross over athletes from MTB. Could the moto TAM be a further 2x?… 3x?… more?!
A Brand that resonates. A bike that rides like nothing else. The catalyst that the industry needs to enter a new chapter of growth?
Our new ‘light-moto’ segment maximizes the benefits of going electric, by creating a lighter, quicker and more agile bike. Digital tuning and no gearshifts accelerates the learning curve, and allows for gravity oriented mountain bikers to apply their skills directly. All the while, these traits enable advanced riders to do things they never could before on two wheels. Dust is for early adopters, moto riders and mountain bikers alike.
We think - with the help of this expanded community - we can build the #1 US dirt bike brand, globally. An iconic lifestyle brand built on the best performance bikes at an affordable price point.
We hope you join us for this rare opportunity to help shape a market.
Allied Market Research - from Portland Oregon not far from us in Bend - published a report 'Dirt Bike Market Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast 2021-2031'. Pegging the global dirt bike industry at $9.1B in 2021, and expecting it to reach $18 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 7.0% from 2022 to 2031. (Here)
Revzilla explain adventure and dirt bikes continue to lead the US motorcycle industry. When the pandemic hit and shut down many other activities, lots of people bought dirt bikes, and that trend is still going: People are buying dirt bikes in all their forms, from big adventure-touring bikes to minibikes for the kids to ride in the back yard. (Here)
Tucker Neary from Electric Cycle Rider take the 2023 Surron Ultra Bee for a first ride review & test. The Ultra Bee is a great example of an entry level light-moto category bike.(Here)
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Done and DUSTED for this week. See you all on the next lap.